Air on the river in a 3-way pot, deep in the Sunday Millions

Game type: Poker Stars Sunday Million
Stage of tourney: 25/7000 remain
Avg stack: ~2.7 million
Your image: Fairly tight, opening up since the last bubble broke
Opponent’s image: SB has been playing a weak game, raiser had been taking a lot of small stabs before bubble broke
Your hand: 8♣7♣

This hand is based on actual game play in the PokerStars Sunday Million on July 15th, 2007.

The setup: You’ve made it deep in the Sunday Million, and a significant bubble just broke a player or two ago. Play has changed as the big stacks calm down and the shorter stacks start making their moves.

This hand, you’re dealt a suited connector in the BB. The first two players fold and then MP1 raises just a little over the minimum to 290. He had been fairly active before the bubble but didn’t gain many chips; he’s been quiet since the tables filled up again. The table folds to the loose SB, who calls, and you call. The flop:

Q♠9♦T♣

The SB checks and you decide to check your weak draw. The preflop raiser also checks. The turn brings the A♦. The SB checks again, you check and the preflop raiser checks again. The river is the 4♦, putting a diamond 3 flush on the board.

The SB checks. It’s your action. With about a million in the middle and holding complete air here, do you feel like you should bluff in this spot? Discuss bet sizes and justifications in the comments.

9 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

Anonymous

If you dont bluff – You dont lose.

[Reply]

Jeremy Fisher

I don’t like a bluff all that much here at all.

First, we should establish that, in such a weakly played pot, you’re probably getting called by any pair.

So, what this means is that the only hand that’s better than yours that you possibly will get to fold is K high and J high.

The obvious question is, what could the original raiser here (who is yet to act behind you) possibly have raised with that didn’t hit at all?
I’m almost positive that any PP here will call you, so that’s out. Any A, Q, or T is out. KJ is obviously out. What else does that leave then? He raised with a weak king? Unlikely.
I think your best case scenario here is that the raiser opted for a somewhat loose MP raise with suited connectors, and connected with absolutely nothing. I just don’t think that river card is quite scary enough to push away any better hand.

Honestly, the fact that the opponents folded doesn’t mean for sure we got away with a bluff on this one. We may very well have had the best hand.

[Reply]

Joe B

This hand was played by ‘us’ horribly.
A semi-bluff bet on the flop would have been perfect and taken it right there.
Again, betting the Ace would have probably taken it down.
Now they know you don’t have a Q, you don’t have an A, and it’s likely you don’t have a T or 9 either or you would have stabbed with that too.
so what could you have? a baby flush? Either of the other two will call you with a baby flush or a mid pair.

But if you really want to try for it – a bet of about 300-400k would be in the ballpark of saying you hit the flush.
I personally wouldn’t do it, and give you about a 30% chance to take the pot with that bet. But the tables are full of people who will make that bet…

[Reply]

juggernaut7

To Bluff or Not to Bluff always depends on 3 questiosn for me? Are the extra chips worth the risk? Are my opponents smart enough to lay down their hands or are they too dumb that they’ll call, or are they too smart that they’ll call? Am I confident in this spot to bluff? I think we can answer first question in the affirmative. Yes, you’ll be the table leader if you bluff and win the pot, and the extra chips will come in handy, and I don’t lose much if I get called. Half the pot would be the right amount of risk. The answer to the second question is of course based on your read. If I’m playing against calling stations I’m not bluffing on this spot; I’m not bluffing if I’ve seen a clever player slow play his good hands. So the answer depends on your “feel” for the table. Lastly am I confident to bluff in this spot. This applies more to live games than online. But somedays I’m in such a groove and running the table that you can bluff aggressively with complete air and people will back down, just b/c you make them believe it. If I was this far into the Sunday Mil… I’m bluffing most times on this spot.

[Reply]

drHoho

I would go for the half pot bluff most of the time. Sure there is a risk of being called by a middle pair who doesn’t believe you, but as long as the bluff has more than 33% chance of working it has positive EV, and the ekstra chips are way more significant than the possible loss as juggernaut stated.

[Reply]

NineLions

If you don’t bluff you don’t lose, but, if you don’t bluff, you don’t win this pot either.

What are you representing here with a bluff? Or are you just making it expensive for the others to see the showdown?

I don’t think you can represent the Ace; if you had it, you should have value bet the turn. A very slowplayed KJ?

A flush is a possibility. Imagine it had come Ac 4c instead of diamonds, what would you have done on the flop, turn and river? A half pot bet would be reasonable on the river, trying to see if anyone will call you down.

Or would a 9 or T in your spot check the flop, check the Ace turn, then test the waters on the river?

I think these are plausible enough representations that you can make. If someone doesn’t believe you and comes over the top, just fold.

[Reply]

Zot95

I say bluff… 400k is about right.

No one showed any strength… so basically you risk being called by someone slow playing a monster, or someone with a weakish pair that smells a bluff. As far as monsters go, I think that’s unlikely unless they had KJ (and thus flopped a straight). By the flop, and certainly the turn, a set could not so easily give up free cards. As far as weak (but better) hands go… well, it’s a pretty scary board for them too.

In response to what Joe B said, in this situation, if you bet 400k and expect to win 30% of the time, then bluffing is (barely) +EV.

[Reply]

Hugh

Bet the turn!! Why risk it on the river, represent the Ace and scoop the pot.

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Anonymous

Up for win, and bet 500K. I think one the oppenents is holding low pocket pair, neither of them hit the board with A or Q.

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