May 17, 2012

Daily Hand Quiz

Game type: Major online tournament
Stage of tourney: 30 of over 2000 remain
Avg stack: ~115k
Your image: You’ve been fairly active preflop and have folded to a couple of re-raises
Opponent’s image: Opponent has been squeaky tight
Your hand: T♥T♦

The setup: You’ve built a decent stack late in the money of this major online tournament. There’s a small money bubble approaching in a few players, but everyone left is guaranteed a fairly decent payday.

You’ve been pretty active preflop, but nothing maniacal. Let’s say you’ve raised about 6 times in the last 25 hands. Your opponent has been very tight, but you know them as a player who knows when it’s time to exploit a tight image.

You’re dealt tens UTG. You raise to about 2.5x the BB. UTG+1 folds and then Player C shoves for about 46k more. The table folds back around to you. What’s your play with a medium pair facing a preflop re-raise?


17 COMMENTS  (Jump to comment form)

Jeremy Fisher


I think this is a pretty easy fold. Two things make this decision for me: first and most obviously, my opponent’s “squeaky tight” play. I don’t expect someone who’s been playing real tight for such a long time in this tournament to make such a big move without a real hand.
Second is his willingness to shove over my UTG raise. As stated, we’ve been playing aggressively but not maniacally preflop, so opponents are still definitely going to respect an UTG raise from us. If this guy feels comfortable coming over the top, then I’m pretty sure he’s got us beat.

I honestly think your best case scenario here is AK. I’d put his whole range at AK, JJ+. It just seems far too likely that we’re behind here for me to call, and for me this is a clear fold.

I think this would be a much more interesting spot if we held JJ rather than TT – in that case it’s much closer for me, and I’d probably lean slightly towards a call.

[Reply]

taker


definately fold

[Reply]

Rallenkov


Fold, its just Tens

[Reply]

John B.


I’m calling here. If Player C’s got an overpair – congrats. But if he’s pushing with AQ or 88, I’m in pretty good shape. The added comment that he was rocky, but not afraid to push at the right time was the deciding factor. What better time to exploit that than at bubble time?

[Reply]

Joe B


The question to ask yourself here is, would you hate yourself later if the worst case scenario happens and that is this:
you take a stand now with 10-10, he turns over Q-Q and you lose half your stack and end up blinded out or shoving unsuccessfully just inside the bubble. You can still make the money if you lose here, but are basically gambling with a shot at first. Winning here will make you 2nd chip at the table and that’s a good place to be, but is it worth it with 10-10?
Has he read Phil Gordon’s work on tournament play or not? Phil would make this move just before the bubble knowing he can steal the money so that’s a case for calling.
But he raised from early-middle position with no regard for the big stack behind him yet to act, which is a STRONG case for Q-Q or higher, in fact he probably has something stronger – like K-K or even.. gulp.. A-A.
Fold this and wait for a better fight.

[Reply]

AJ


I thought and thought about this, and couldn’t figure it out. My thoughts was that a tight player might cold-call with huge pair but make a big re-raise with two big cards (AK, AQ, even KQ?). on the other hand, TT is a pretty weak hand to stand an all-in reraise from a tight, early-position player.

An overpair seems likeliest here, and given that:
a) there are four higher pairs
b) you’re barely a favorite against a hand as weak as QJo
c) the odds aren’t favorable

you should probably fold.

Still I voted call. If you lose, your stack is small but OK for your table (only one huge stack). If you win you’re in a great position. I’m apparently a donkey for calling since the guy had a huge hand. Oh well.

[Reply]

Ally


Fold.

Interestingly, I played this same exact hand last night. raise TT utg late with a decent stack and see the SB put me all in. I time banked and folded. And, since the SB only had one player behind, it would have been a better spot for him to make a move than our villain in this hand.

Our opponent’s range really isn’t that huge. Sure, he could be making some kind of move, but is he really shoving trash here? There are 5 players left to act behind him and you’re getting close to 2-1 to call; plus you opened from utg.

It’s possible that our villain here thinks that it’s time to gamble and is shoving a hand like KQ/KJ/QJ, but not real likely. It’s going to almost always be AK/AQ/JJ+ here. He is probably not shoving 99 and below.

So, you’ll be putting in half of your stack when at best your racing and most likely you’re a huge dog.

I think this is an easy fold and a terrible call.

Think of it this way, would we make this call here if we had 22/33? 22/33 is going to come out almost exactly the same against his range as TT.

I have to admit that I’m shocked by the vote responses on this one…

[Reply]

drHoho


I agree with ally, how can you possibly call? This is a very easy fold.

[Reply]

Morty


This really depends on the range of hands you put this guy on and even if it’s a fairly tight range then the math is pretty close. I’d probably think for a while and then fold but of course you have to be at the table to be sure about anything which is the drawback of these quizes. For me the deciding factor is my image as well as his stack – he doesn’t need to make a move here.
As for the vote responses, people are always going to be more lazy and aggressive when they are voting here versus playing at the table.

[Reply]

no_donkey


Even if suited, two overcards to our tens would represent a near toss-up (we have slightly better odds, even if he’s suited). The fact that he’s playing tight in early-to-mid-position is what gives me pause. It’s a risky (not valiant) call; it’s a sensible fold. It’s not an insta-fold, as some of you risk-averters have been suggesting. If he’s known to look for opportunities to exploit a tight image, A-8 through A-10 are not outta the question, guys; in that case we’d be well in the lead. 10s is a strong hand, stronger than some are saying here, but not as dominant as one would like given the number of players at the table. The raw likelihood of any two cards being a pair of jacks or better is about 1.8%; this means that once in every 21 random two-card draws or so, *someone’s* going to have jacks or better. On average, therefore, they should appear somewhere once every six or seven hands on an eight-person table. (A little more than once-an-orbit here; a little less than once every two orbits three handed, etc.)
I’d call, and cross my fingers pretty tight.

[Reply]

Anonymous


There is only one thing to worry about:

MAKING THE MONEY! Im assuming that top 20 get paid their entry and then some…. Now’s not the time to waste your average stack… You’ve come this far – its time to go scrooge on everyone and wait for other fools to bow out of the tourney.

[Reply]

Anonymous


add…. if you folded on everything (except broadway and high pp) from now on – you are guaranteed to make the bubble

[Reply]

MDH


Everyone has made the money just a money bubble comming…so with 30 left it is tempting to chip up to have a chance to win at the final table.

[Reply]

Anonymous


easy fold, TT is way too overvalued

[Reply]

Anonymous


easy fold, TT is way too overvalued

[Reply]

John B.


Call 52% vs. Fold 48%? Looks like a coin flip to me – good one guys!

[Reply]

just happened to me


Had TT min raised and guy pushed. I called he had KK. Searched internet and came up with this site.
What we realy need to do is find the correct range for tight and loose players.

[Reply]

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