Thin draw versus Phil Ivey, high stakes no limit cash game
Thanks to HighStakesReport for the hand history.

Game type: 300/600 No limit hold em cash game
Your image: You’re arguably the top online high stakes cash player
Opponent’s image: Phil Ivey is one of the top live poker players in the world
Your hand: 8♦9♣
This hand is taken from actual game play at the 300/600 NL holdem table at Full Tilt. This hand took place between Brian ’sbrugby’ Townsend and Phil Ivey. You’ll be standing in for sbrugby.
The setup: You’re in the middle of a hotly contested heads up match with Phil Ivey, battling with him here and on a 200/400 6-max table where Phil is playing hyper-aggressively and seems to be over betting his very strong hands. You’ve won a couple of large pots in this heads up match by going to showdown with strong hands, and padded your stack with a series of successful check-raises on the flop.
This hand, you are in the BB with 98o. Ivey makes it 3x to go and you call. You flop the low end of a gutshot:
3♠J♣Q♣
You check, and Ivey bets $3,000. You check raise to to $9,200 and Ivey flat calls. In the meantime, Ivey stacks a guy on the other table when his KK holds up against AQ. In that hand, Ivey made it 12k to go preflop into a $400 blind and the button over-shoved.
The turn brings the 2♦
It’s your action. What’s your preferred line here? Feel free to specify bet amounts in the comments.
7.5.07 / 4am
What can we do here…..
Nothing much.
Do you really think he will call another bet on the turn. Umm most likely. The reason why
Well he called a check raise on the flop and the turn doesnt change teh dynamics of the board at all.
We are out of position and by betting here we are stipulating Phil called the flop in order to float us on the turn. How often has that happen? Well if he has done it a numberous amount of times, then betting or check raising may be the naswer but Phil still will not fold nay kind of draw or a good pair which he presumable has.
From the information given Id say this is a check fold.
7.5.07 / 4am
edited - cahnge presumable to possible
7.5.07 / 4am
Up against Phil Ivey here AGAIN?!? Check/fold.
7.5.07 / 6am
Bet strong, good analysis by the staff IMO
7.5.07 / 6am
m415k
7.5.07 / 7am
Christiano why is betting here a good decision?
He is not folding this draw…….. all we are doing by betting is making air fold. How likely is he to fold a pair… as said the dynamics of the board have not changed at all. Not one single bit, so the only reason he is folding to another is because he wanted to see if we would double barrel.
Checking to see a free card is the only alternative.
Checking in order to raise may be an alternative if you think Phil will fold out second pair, but certainly by betting it I can nearly guarantee he will not fold out often enough to make it a possible play.
7.5.07 / 8am
Agree with staff and Cristiano, bet strong, but fold to shove.
At the same time, I don’t hate the line of check/fold. If we have been constantly check/raising, eventually, you’ll get caught with your hand in the cookie jar and you really don’t want to spew the rest of your stack.
Taking this one hand though, unless we’re certain Ivey is trapping (risky spot to trap with the draw heavy board), we really do need to take another stab here on the turn.It’s easily possible for us to have caught a piece of that board and there’s no way that the turn helped Ivey’s hand. A good bet here will force him to make a difficult decision about the rest of his stack.
Ivey either has a great hand such as two pair or an overpair or top pair good kicker and is deciding to gamble on a blank hitting the turn in order to get paid off, or he’s drawing.
We’ve represented that we caught at least a part of that flop such as top pair, 2nd pair or two pair or combo draw. I realy can’t see Ivey continuing on a draw here.
7.5.07 / 1pm
I think A-rag is a possibility, and DHQ-staff misspeak in the stated opinion: in fact, the A-4 backdoor was actually helped by the turn.
I voted check-fold.
7.5.07 / 3pm
Check - Fold.
Without a T coming out on the river, you are almost certainly beat. Even if the T came out, there is always the possibility of K A being kept quiet in order to trap you in a check raise bluff.
Im happy to live and fight another day with our respective 73k and 66k stacks… there are better spots then this.
7.5.07 / 5pm
Any kind of check play is just hoping Phil also cheks, which is what happens here..but Townsend missed an oppurtunity.
I think you need to raise big, I think he would fould the majority of the time..but its gotta be BIG bet..its gotta be something he cant call with a mediocore draw. IF he comes back at you its an obvious fold from you.
As to what actually happend, its not suprising, what i expected with the check to showdown. Betting big here is a tough play and if it doesnt work out or Ivy makes a great reraise youve lost ALOT of money on just a “play”.
7.10.07 / 3am
Its not about being beat. Its about representing a hand to make Phil Ivey fold out. Here by betting we can represent a hand like top pair.
Would second pair bet the turn… depends on how other hands played before it is usually unlikely. I dont think we can make a believable bluff to make Phil Ivey fold here, and check/fold saves a lot more moeny than betting does. As said before Phil Ivey werent folding to another bet. This is an obvious check fold.
7.10.07 / 5am
BET the POT and see what happens. He cant flat call again. If he raises, than fold.
7.10.07 / 7am
Your image: You’re arguably the top online high stakes cash player
This says nothing about your image. WTF!!
4.3.08 / 12am
Brian should have bet… Ivey would have not called a check raise with second pair and after first reading about the hand I thought that Ivey had a staight draw because I know he would over push instead of call in a game like the one he was playing in. So you can easily put him on a k10 or 9-10 which gives you more out then one would thing but not all 4 outs to the 10 like the writer talks about. At worst he had a queen there that he may have not wanted to put all his money in on the flop with since he could have been drawing dead or still behind to a monster draw. By taking a card off he gets to see what townsend will do once again before he has to act and if he thought is pair was good he would have push after a bet at that point. The correct play would be to bet the pot here and fold to a raise. If you are brian you should know that a bet here if fairly harmless and should take the pot with the 3 that bricked off on the turn, if not you shut down or fold to a raise, unless you get a free card and of course hit your 10 in which case he only had 3 and still would have not got paid off on. Ivey called the raise on the flop because he put brian on a hand and he thought if he didnt have a made hand he had a flush draw with maybe some of his staight out, which is the worst hand you can go against if you have a staight draw, so he chose along the lines of calling to stack him if he did hit his outs on the turn if he had a real hand and if not he would have folded. I like iveys check on the turn and river because he knows brian could easily be going for a second check raise or simply just check-calling against his over aggresive opponent for pot control. I dont see any risk in betting the turn there because i know Ivey and I know Brian knows Ivey and with a monster on a draw heavy board like that ivey will put in the 3rd bet almost 99 percent of the time, he doesnt not slow play because of his hyper aggresive play since it pay off more for him to just keep betting all the time, although he has added trapping to his arsenal i just dont believe he would on a flop like that and especially heads up.

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7.5.07 / 12am
Check/Fold
Only because Ivey plays hyper aggresive doesnt mean he cannot hold a good hand with which he might be trapping us.