Second pair facing an all in, high stakes cash game

Tough spot. In particular for me because I’m not at all a big heads up player, not to mention the ridiculous stakes this game is being played at. But that said…
Given the hyperaggressive play of the high stakes heads up FT tables, I think the guiding principle here is, when in doubt, assume you’re good. I think that applies here as well. We don’t need to give much credit to the preflop raise - as far as I know these guys NEVER enter a heads up pot without a raise so it’s standard procedure and just about ATC range. On the flop I’m almost certain we had the best hand - it really just becomes a question of whether he hit his 10 on the turn.
Seems to me it’s a crapshoot. For me, the fact that I’ve got “just” 30k behind after leading for 18k makes me think my odds are good enough to call.
I’m thinking I’m good here 50-60% of the time, which certainly justifies a call.

As I’ve said before, you can’t be afraid of “what actually happened”. He caught runner-runner spades - nice hand. Oh, I called and my hand would’ve held up a good percentage of the time. (Help me out here, math geeks.)

For once my analysis was similar to the DHQ staff - I figured that the call of my checkraise was the most telling hint - it told me he had something valuable, either a pair or a strong draw. When the T comes, my guess was that he had overs and either now had a pair of Ts or a str8 draw (QJ), and since I couldn’t tell which, I voted fold.

Til either hit hard on the flop (and is playing for a trap) or was drawing to something. Were he drawing i cant give him credit to improving his hand on the Ts. If I knew he was drawing on the river he would be far behind, but what actually appeals to me are the pot odds which are indeed good for what I have to consider top pair (unless he got a 2nd pair on the turn).
Last but not least one’s got a have ba

Til either hit hard on the flop (and is playing for a trap) or was drawing to something. Were he drawing i cant give him credit to improving his hand on the Ts. If I knew he was drawing on the river he would be far behind, but what actually appeals to me are the pot odds which are indeed good for what I have to consider top pair (unless he got a 2nd pair on the turn).
Last but not least one’s got a have ba

Oops… There we go: one must have balls of steel to play high stakes because it is not easy to risk loosing an extra 30K

I hava a note on my computer that says “no more cash games”. This kind of problem just remind me why I put this note.

Calling was the correct play here. I put him on a straight and a flush draw, but put him on a J-10 spades - I assumed the cards were higher because of his preflop raise. When he kept calling he was telling you he was on a draw, and when he called the raise it showed he was on a monster draw - so assuming he had the flush was obvious. The straight being there also was personal assessment but most should come to that conclusion too considering he hung on for so long.
At the end, you either put him on the big straight draw or the little one with the flush, but you have to call given that he wouldn’t be on a draw if he had the 9-9 as you do and/or an ace to boot, so you know you have him beat with a solid kicker.
You have to call - if he hits that’s just how the cards fall sometimes. Rest easy in the fact that had you known exactly what he held you’d have called all the same.

Ridiculously tough hand. At first glance, I voted to fold thinking that our villain has to have an overpair here and slows down on the flop to draw more money in.

But, there’s much more to it than that…

Our villain can raise almost any two cards heads up with position. And, he’s going to CB almost every flop. This flop is so dry that it’s a good spot for us to check/raise with air a lot. So, what does all of this tell us about the hand range of our opponent… Well, probably not enough…

With what hands will our villain raise preflop, continuation bet with that board, and then flat call our check/raise?

* An overpair? Probably not, especially not TT-KK. AA is a possibility since no single card can come which can scare you off your hand. But, TT can’t slow down for fear that a J, Q, K, or A hits the turn. Same holds true for most other overpairs. I really have to think that any overpair here re-raises the flop and perhaps shoves.

* A set? Very safe flop for a set although there are a couple of straight draws. Our villain has position and could just call here with a set trying to entice us to put more money in the pot. It’s also possible that he jams the turn thinking we’re pot committed. A set could play out this way, but heads up, we really can’t always assume we’re against a set. After all, the odds of being dealt a pair are about 17 to 1 and the odds of flopping a set are about 8-1. You can do the math. While a set might play out exactly like this, I really think we have to discount this as even a possibility.

* A pair, even top pair? Sure, this sounds reasonable. Since sbrugby could check/raise with air here, we could call the flop and reevaluate on the turn. But, can we jam with just a pair and a weak kicker on the turn? I don’t think so. We can’t shove J9 or A5 here. rugby has taken two big swings at the pot and I don’t think we can assume he’s got total air now. The only exception might be A9. So, I don’t like this holding for our villain.

* A pair and a draw. This is a possibility, but only the flush draw. There is no pair and draw possibility on the flop and there are no pair and straight possibilities even after the turn. So, a hand like J9ss, A9ss, Q9ss all make sense here.

* A naked straight draw. This is a possibilitiy. There are several on the board on the flop: 87, 76, 63, 32, A3, A2. Very reasonable to assume a semibluff here with these hands, especially the open ended draws. But, are you going to push the turn? Let’s rule out the gutshots right away. Are you going to push an open ended draw with one card to come? I really doubt it. If you wanted to play your draw aggressively, it would have been much better to play it aggressively on the flop. So, even though the flop play might suggest a straight draw, no way he pushes that turn.

* Combo draw. The turn brings a spade and puts a flush draw out there. This hand actually makes a lot of sense. He could have called the flop checkraise with an open ended draw and a backdoor flush draw and he could shove the turn with these hands. We’re talking specifically about 76ss, 63ss, 32ss. I don’t think he would have played a gutshot on the flop to the healthy checkraise.

* Two pair. This hand would most likely play out similar to a set, but what two pair hand is possible? T9 and 54. Definitely a possibility though.

* Total air. No way. Sure, these players make moves all the time and I suppose it’s possible here, but you have to see that rugby has put so much into the pot already that he may call you down very light.

So, to sum up, the most reasonable range for our opponent is a combo draw; 76ss, 63ss, 32ss; two pair, either T9 or 54, a set (pretty unlikely), or a pair and a draw (something like A9ss or J9ss). Someone else can run this through poker stove, but K9 isn’t going to be a huge favorite against any of these hands. But, it doesn’t have to be. In fact, we need to win just one in four times to break even. Not happy about putting in my whole stack when I’m behind the range of our opponent, but the price is right.

So, I think my first instinct of folding was incorrect. I think this is a call. How much time do we have to make this decision anyway???????

To me this is an easy call, considerably easier than the typical DHQ.

Your pot odds are attractive. I generally avoid using the phrase “pot committed”, but you already put 30k in the pot (29.6k to be exact) and have 30k left. I’d have to be pretty well convinced that I was behind to let this go. I don’t think I’d have been convinced. Spades with extra outs (straight draw, a 5, an over) is just too plausible given the action.

Not as much time as you do ally. lmao