Considering a squeeze play deep in event #38 of the WSOP

Game type: Event #38 of the WSOP $1,500 buy in NLHE tournament
Stage of tourney: Down to 15 players from a starting field of about 3,000
Avg stack: ~500k
Your image: You’ve lost some tough hands but have shown down only quality
Opponent’s image: UTG has been raising liberally, UTG +1 is passive-weak.
Your hand: K♦Q♥

This hand is taken from actual game play at the final two tables of Event #38 of the 2007 WSOP on June 24th. You’ll be standing in for Shane Stacey.

The setup: You’ve parlayed great play and a little luck into a deep run in this WSOP event. There’s no cash jump until you hit the final table.

You’ve lost a decent amount of a once-healthy stack over the last few orbits when the following hand comes up. Player A, who has a big stack and has been raising regularly, opens for about 2.5x the BB. Player B thinks a bit and then flat calls, somewhat reluctantly. Player C folds and it’s your action.

Player A isn’t giving anything up, but Player B really looks like they’re in a tight spot – and they just doubled up a few hands ago with 10 10.

With almost 150k in the middle, what’s your play with KQ?

11 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

Chris B

I’d be more worried about player B’s holding. Anyone who knows much about tells and that “weak means strong, strong means weak”, should know that Bs reluctance to call is likely to mean he has a strong holding. Plus hes passive and has already called one raise from early position. I fold.

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Sam

I voted fold.
I think you’re hand is not suitable for a resteal. The stack size seems good though, we have slightly more than 11bb even if something like 13-14bb would have been better.

The problem with KQ is that hands that are going to call you will have you dominated, in the best case.
I would have definitely been more eager to make that move with 67s than with KQo.

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Ally

I like a fold here for a couple of reasons.

First, KQ is a hand that is easily dominated. If you do squeeze here, and called, you’re most likely in terrible shape. Either of the first two players could hold AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ. While you’d think that all of these hands are re-raise types of hands from player B, he could also decide he wants to see a flop in position against the LAGgy A, or be trying to trap with a monster hand against an aggro opponent.

Second, your table position is not ideal for a squeeze. This play would be much better suited if you were facing a button raise and a SB call. You’re talking about UTG and UTG+1. Their table position alone tells you that at least one of them has a pretty legit hand. Not only are you facing two active opponents in the pot ahead of you, but your position also leaves three more players behind you. Again, there is a chance here that someone behind you wakes up with a monster.

Third, your opponents: both of your opponents have you easily covered and even though you can inflict some serioius damage to both should you win, they are not out of it should they lose. With the bubble some distance away still, they have just as much right to gamble here as you do.

Fourth is pot odds: I really don’t think you’ve got the fold equity you need here. Player A may drop his hand, but if B was willing to call a standard raise for almost 1/10th of his stack, he’s going to have to be certain that he’s crushed before not calling an additional $200k into a pot of almost $400k.

Anyway, I think a shove here is just too risky. No question you need to find a spot soon, but this is just not it.

And, to the people that voted to call, I really do not like this option. You’re only going to pair 1/3 of the time and even when you do against the range of our opponents, we’re really not going to like our spot.

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Zot95

I said fold, but I could see raising to attempt the squeeze. I don’t like calling – I think you’re stack is too small to “play poker” with it. While it looks like you’re getting good pot odds, you’d better hope the flop hits you, since any action post-flop is likely to commit you.

I don’t think you have enough chips to put sufficient pressure on the first two… basically they’ll be calling with 2-to-1 odds. Between the two players (yes, even the agg UTG) there’s a pretty good chance you’ll get called. And of those hands that call you, you’re either in a flip (good pair) or dominated.

But like I said, I can see the raise too. What helps is that the most likely caller (B) has a stack you can damage, so they absolutely won’t call without a hand. And likewise, B has enough of a stack that A won’t call unless he has a hand. So it’s not a bad move. For me though, I wait for another hand where I can be first in the pot and go all-in there.

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spackle

shane pwns noobs. that is all.

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Jeremy Fisher

It’s raise or fold, as so many situations are. I go with fold. For me, it’s close, because I love to squeeze. But I think the little factor that tilts it away for me is table position. 3 people yet to act here, I don’t like it at all. I think if I were on small or big blind I’d more strongly consider this

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DHQ Addict

At a stack of 12BB, call is not an option, especially with the antes here. While squeezing with this hand is not ideal if called, but you are not looking to get called. One more trip through the blinds and you are getting pretty seriously short. With no significant payout change coming until nearly half the field is out, this looks like a pretty good opportunity to increase your stack by over 50%. My only issue is that your stack is not quite large enough to exert too much pressure. In the end, it is pretty close push or fold decision. Biased by the description, I would have pushed. Based on the math, I leaned toward folding 60/40 to 55/45 or so. Therefore, it is pretty close to me.

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chloesdad

Loon’s a lot better than me, so I voted to do just what he did.

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Foley

I voted fold b/c I already knew what happened lol. But still I like the raise a little bit. I probably would have called and then just pushed on any flop. Gets rid of AQ AK and similar hands. I dont want to second guess my boy Shane though.

Congrats on the cash Homie!

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j w

raise here seems like it’s saying “call me like the shortstack that I am!”

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Patrick

Shane is the man, congrats shane!!! LOON 4 MOD!!!!

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