UTG play in the money of a large no limit tournament

I’m in the money, and I’m in the business of making +EV plays, tournament-wise. Here, I need to outlast ONE more man in order to make a solid jump in money. I’m not desperate to win the entire tournament, just turn a profit, and find the best way to make the most money possible. Here, that means buckling down, and letting someone else bust so I can make the jump.
I’ve got 10 blinds here. I definitely am nowhere close to full desperation mode. And there’s absolutely no way I’m pushing from UTG, with seven players to act after, with anything less than a premium hand. If I had 6 BB here instead of 10 it becomes a more pressing question.
But as it stands, this situation here, I’m not pushing with anything less than AQ+/99+. It simply would not be smart.

I agree with Jeremy Fisher, even thought I would properly fold 99 and slow play Aces and Kings with a raise to about 250.000.

The problem with pushing KQ,KJ,Ax,QJ,22-88 is that if everyone fold you’ll win 115.000, but if you are called, you will only be called with hands like AA-QQ,AK,AQ that will leave you with a 80-70% chance to lose all your chips.

But the argument is that the blinds are coming, that will force you to make a -EV move (putting 10% of your stake in the pot with a bad position).

David Sklansky argues in TPFAP that you should not be too willing to make a small -EV move from UTG to avoid a larger -EV move in the big blind.
The reason is that no matter what (i.e. you don’t lose all your chips) you will have to make the -EV move in BB.

So my answer is; only with premium hands.

I agree with Martin C.
People see you as the aggressive player, wildly awaiting any hand that he can push and get action.
check raising aces will work as usual, but if you catch them in the next hand or two (without having to wait too long so it looks obvious that you waited for a monster) push with them, and give the table what it expected. And maybe a little more than they expected

You are not in total desperation mode yet with an M of close to 5. In two hands though, your M will drop to 4.

Arguments for a shove with any two: if you pick up the blinds and antes, you make a significant build to your stack (only to get chopped back down by the blinds over the next two hands), but it does help you survive another trip around the table. Plus, even though everyone at the table knows that your range is HUGE, that doesn’t mean that they can act. An EP player has to be more concerned with the strength of players behind him and this applies all the way around the table until you get to the blinds. So, since your stack can still inflict some damage, you aren’t going to get looked up really light from EP or MP. However, the odds of getting a pretty darn good calling hand here are about 7% (AJ+/TT+/KQ) and there are 7 people behind you. Rough math suggests that we could expect someone to hold one of these hands about half the time. The good news is that unless you’re dominated (which is going to be difficult to do when you’re pushing any two, except by a higher pp), you’ll be not much worse than 40% to win the hand with a ton of dead money in the pot. So, there is an arguement to push any two.

Arguments to be more selective and push maybe top 25%: Yeah, there are still some players out there naive enough to still respect that shove from UTG, but most of the poker world is now familiar enough with Harrington to know that the range here is huge. I’d expect that many of your opponents in a $200 buy in tourney would know that even more than your average $10 tourney player. With that, there is a very good chance we get looked up light here. And, even though the BB doesn’t have a monster stack, his pot odds are going to be so good to call that he can really afford to open up his calling range should it fold to him. The best part about tightening your range here is the fact that you many times will get called by a hand that you dominate. If you do shove with AQ, there’s a good chance you get called by KQ or AJ. Also, since you’re not ridiculously short here, you have some time to play shortstack ninja. As the aggressive play at this time picks up, you can sit back and pick a better spot. In two hands, if it folds to you in the SB, you’ll be in a much better spot to shove any two. If it folds to you on the button in three hands, you could shove any two; etc. Or, you do have a little time to wait since you will be looked up light. Shoving and picking up the blinds and antes is great for survival, but right now, you do need a double more than anything else, so you do eventually want to be called.

Anyway, I think I’d prefer to be a little more selective here. I really think that shoving any two here is as much -EV$ as it is -EV. Folding wins you another $700 and gives you a better chance to go deeper in the event by picking a better spot.

I understand that there are a LOT of people that like the shoving any two strategy here, but I really do think you can find better spots to put your money in.

Jeremy, note that 10 blinds ain’t what it used to be.

You’ve got to take into account the antes (as well as the table size, not so much a factor here at a full table), which is what M represents. M is the total pot before any bets, which tells you how many orbits you can last.

4.5 M is into the Red zone, if I remember my Harrington correctly.

not super desperate yet pick a better spot to raise

another vote for jeremy and martin.

Y’all are wimps, when can we get together to play? Everyone at the table is afraid to be eliminated on the bubble, so this is a perfect chance to steal. Maybe not with any two, but certainly at least half the time.