Weak hand on the short stack in the BB, Final Table of the Millions

Game type: Poker Stars Sunday Millions no limit hold em tournament
Your image: Tight
Stage of tourney: Final Table, 9 of about 7000 remain
Avg stack: ~ 7 million
Misc notes:
Your hand: Q♠2♣

This hand is taken directly from game play at the final table of the Stars Sunday Million on 6/03/07.

The setup: You’ve made it to the final table of the Millions nursing a desperately short stack. The prize pool distribution for the next few spots goes:

9th $8,330
8th $12,708
7th $21,866
6th $31,064

Preflop the table folds to the cutoff, who pushes all in for about 2.2 million. The button and SB folds, and it’s your action.

What’s your play?

Discuss your thoughts on this quiz in our forums – Weak hand on the short stack in the BB, Final Table of the Millions, or in the comments below.

13 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

drhoho

I think the pot odds are good most of the time, but of course, potodds are not everything.
You can possibly justify both options.

[Reply]

Geronimoo

Folding is VERY wrong here! If you fold now and also the SM you’ll have 800,000 left which means that even if you double up you’ll be blinded away next round. The other short stacks will see your dead stack and wait till you’re gone. Your odds are massive and if you win there’s a very good chance the other 2 short stacks are going to bust out before you which means you get a good shot at 6th place and $30,000. Seems a lot better than folding and having a small shot at 8th place and $12,000.

[Reply]

tromech

I agree that despite the bad hand it’s definitely a mistake to fold. I would not give player F much credit for a good hand – you might even be ahead at this time.

Granted, you have the chance to finish one rank higher by folding, but by doing this you just accept to get blinded away a couple of hands later. So you basically let the other players decide your fate in the next hands, for you don’t have any serious chance left to get into a better position with that little stack left.

Moreover, I think the other small stacks will also wait until you’re gone unless they have a hand, so by folding you will most likely still finish 9th.

[Reply]

John B.

Could go either way here, but I’ll call. Yes, I could blind out and maybe go up a position or two, but I’m thinking my two cards, as lousy as they may be, are probably live. I’m thinking Player F is going to go all-in with anything in late position and nobody in front of him. You left out “what actually happened”…

[Reply]

Cristiano

I’d go all win without a blink a couple months ago, but as both my wife and Chris Fergusson told me “There’s always another hand” And I cand see you playing at least another five or six hands and just maybe getting another position more times than you can win with Q2.
I’d go chicken and fold hoping to get at least one step up the ITM ladder, even know i believe callind about as much value

[Reply]

spinwise

this guy just made it past the blinds and now has 5 free hands to catch something to push on. this makes me think that he alreay has a pocket pair, which means at best, only my Q is live. i realize i will have little chance of moving up the ladder if i fold, but i feel my chances are even smaller if i call. so i fold.

[Reply]

tromech

I don’t think he is overly likely to have a pocket pair. Yes, he could just sit back for a couple of hands, if he doesn’t have good cards. However, with 5 players folded around to him, this is about as good as it can get for putting a little pressure on the remaining players. That’s why I see a huge probability for a blind steal with a random hand here.

[Reply]

drhoho

So, when are we told what actually happened?
(By the way, I forgot to write before, I’ll go for the call)

[Reply]

drhoho

I just keep posting here, sorry.
Some malfunction in explorer didnt allow me to see most of the comments, so I just noticed that some people are discussing the risk of a pocket pair.
It doesnt really matter much weather he has a pocket pair, AX or KX. Q2 has about 1/3 chance to win either way. Check a few random hands on CardPlayer. It is only in case your Q is dominated you don’t have potodds.
I dont think the villain would push with any two cards here, as he knows that I know that my potodds are good. So he would only push if he though his hand is better than mine, as I am going to call. If I am in front he must have J10 or J9, in wich case it is almost 50-50 chances. But as explained, I dont think that is the case.
If I call, there is 65% chance I finish 9.th, 35% chance I get a good shot at finishing 7.th or even better.
If I fold there is probably 50% chance I finish 9.th, 50% chance I finish 8.th, with virtually no chance of climbing any higher.

[Reply]

chris

he called with q2, villian showed a4 and held up to win the hand

[Reply]

WongStanford

Maybe missing something, but you are well behind even a random hand. To call you must assign a significant probability (50%?) to a bluff. How likely is he to bluff w. a BR2 stack yet to play and you needing to make a move before you face another round of blinds?

Looks like a clear fold to me.

[Reply]

hachem

Even if you do get blinded out in future hands, your prizemoney will most likely jump to at least 12k (8th) from 8k(9th). A 50% increase for sitting on your hands is not a bad result. Your chances of winning this hand seem far less than that.

[Reply]

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[Reply]

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