May 17, 2012

Daily Hand Quiz

Game type: Full Tilt Deep Stack NL Tournament
Your image: You’re fairly new to the table
Stage of tourney: 74 / 222 remain
Avg stack: 8500
Misc notes:
Your hand: 9♣9♥

The setup: You’ve been dwindling after losing a race a few orbits ago with AK. You were moved to this table about 8 hands ago and haven’t played a hand when the following situation comes up.

You’re dealt nines in the BB. The first two seats fold, and then Player C raises to 860. Player D flat calls and it folds to you.

You’ve seen Player C make a couple of raises, but you’ve seen nothing from Player D so far. What’s your play?


11 COMMENTS  (Jump to comment form)

drhoho


If I was deep, I would definately have called here, hoping for at nice flop.
But this short, against two opponents, that is the worst option.
If I were not involved through blinds, I would probably fold.
But rigth here it is a tough laydown to make, so I think I would shove. Off course the call before me is eary. I just hope he has KQ or the like. If it is a coinflip, I am still in front, and there is added chips besides those I put in.

[Reply]

Anonymous


I’m pushing here, but it’s close. A fold here would definately not be bad either. And if I would have had a stack of more than, say, 4000 chips, I would probably call, then try to get my chips in if I flop a set or if no overcards show up.

[Reply]

Anonymous


my thought was that the caller would have reraised with AA/KK/QQ, and maybe lower PPs at this stage in the tourney, so I think the chances are better my 9s are good right now. I’m hoping original raiser has AQ and caller has AKs maybe and their As interfere w/ each other, putting me over 40% to win.

[Reply]

Sam


I agree with above, I don’t see player D just calling with a big pocket pair, as he know he will be giving good odds to anyone behind him.
He might be wating for someone to make a squeeze play and call with a monster, but you must know really well your opponents and we don’t know if he knows the other opponnents !

The squeeze play is tempting, but you might as well get paid by AK, as a player with AK might sense he would be in a coin flip with you.

I think I would just make a “stop and go”, which means I would call and take advantage of the fact that I would be the first one to act to go all in, unless the board is really scary (like A K Q for instance).
That way, if AK misses, you just deny them the opportunity to see two other cards.

[Reply]

Ally


Fold, but, it’s close.

I’m positive that calling is your worst option. It’s very unlikely that you’ll see a flop without overs and even then, if one of our opponents has TT or JJ, they’re calling your shove. And, if you see any A/K/Q/J, you can’t be sure your hand is good. Plus, you’re not getting anywhere near to the correct implied odds to look for a set here.

You could raise here to try and steal this pot. That’s not a terrible idea. But, without a read, it’s a very risky proposition. However, we have already seen Player C making a few raises out of the eight hands we’ve played. Plus, considering that the antes probably just kicked in, may be reason to suspect that he’s on a pure steal here. And, if it was just player C, I’d have an easier time making a move here. And, even though we may have a slight read on player C, loose aggressive players get real hands too.

However, we also need to be concerned with player D. Player D flat called about 1/4 of his stack in middle position. The only time that his play makes sense is if he actually has a huge pair. I doubt that he does, but I think a flat call would only make sense from KK or AA, hoping to have our aggressive player C make another bet on the flop. It doesn’t make sense for him to call here with a smaller pair or suited connectors or even AK/AQ. Almost any hand that he should consider playing here should be played for a shove. My guess is though that our player D is just not a good player and is making a call with a good hand; maybe a pair; or something like AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/QJ/JT and hoping to catch a piece of the flop. If we know that this player is solid, I’d be more willing to go with AA/KK, but without a read, I think it’s just a player that is not that strong nor that tight and just can’t lay down something like KQ suited in that position.

So, if we can be certain that player C is on a steal and player D is playing some less than premium hand, a shove might make sense. Player C would most likely fold and even if player D called, we’d most likely be no worse than a coin flip.

But, the problem with the shove here is the fact that we’re really not certain that C is on a true steal and that player D is weak. And, we’re really not sure how much fold equity we have if any at all. Player C has a stack to play with and is going to be getting nearly 2-1 on his money to come along, and even if D comes along, player C will not be crippled. If C does somehow fold, D is almost certainly priced in to make a call.

So, this is close. We can shove and gamble here. I doubt we get to pick up the pot for free and we may be flipping for our tournament. We may also be crushed by a bigger pp.

Or, we can fold and look for better spots. We don’t have much time to find a hand or a spot, but I think we could find a little better spot than this.

So, I think I fold. But, I think it is completely reasonable to jam here as well…

[Reply]

chris


i think a stop and go with two players behind and a pot built is going to be a very tough move to pull off. plus, the really scary flop sam describes happens about half the time, so….

where’s the first article i’ve been anxiously awaiting ally? huh? :D

[Reply]

Jeremy Fisher


I don’t hesitate to shove here.

[Reply]

Morty


I push if my read suggests I should but purely based on the info presented I might fold. If you push, the chances are slim that you will pick up the pot: C would get better than 3-1 on a call but probably pushes to protect to pot…either way D is getting a good price to see 5 cards if he wants.
What makes me lean towards a push though is assuming they pay 10% then you’re a ways off from a payday and I think picking up chips here puts you in a good spot.

[Reply]

Alan


My most profitable hands are pocket nines – therefore I push.

To expand I am fairly short stacked, there are still a lot of players remaining so I need to make a stand to survive, I have an M of about 10.

I think player C is trying to steal and will fold to the raise and D would seem to be on a draw AK etc (otherwise D should push in this case). I think I have the best hand at the moment.

[Reply]

Rob


I push all in because it seems unikely has a higher pocket pair, and somewhat likely that both players share an overcard. Maybe an AK and AQ, in which case the AQ probably folds, but one las Ace to draw (or AK and KQ or the like). Also, at this stage of a tournament I like to put up or shut up.

[Reply]

bluesbread


Well, Alan, I agree that pocket 9s are a profitable hand. But the reason they are more profitable than, say, the stronger pocket Ts or Js, is that they are easier to get away from. This is a case where you gotta let ‘em go. Best-case scenario is that one of the opponents has a lower pocket pair and the other has AK. That still puts you at only 40 percent to win the hand if both call. Not bad, for the odds, but are you really ready to go home now? And if one of them has higher pocket, which is quite possible, you are in deep trouble.

[Reply]

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