Daily Hand Quiz

headsup flush over flush? don’t know many who could’ve gotten away…

[Reply]

I voted to make a small bet here–not necessarily puny, but perhaps 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot.

I agree with the staff that if HU we run a baby flush into a higher flush with only three of that suit on the board, it’s just not our day.

I think that a smallish bet is really the best way to accomplish our goal–to get as many chips in the middle as possible, but yet cut down on the odds of our opponent hitting a hand that will beat us.

We flopped a flush. This is a monster hand heads up. I don’t think in this case we need to worry about the board pairing and we definitely don’t have to worry about a straight card hitting. All we have to worry about is one of 9 unseen diamonds hitting the board. If we give our opponent credit for one high diamond, then there are really only 8 more diamonds out of 45 cards left in the deck so we’ll see this hit about 18% of the time. So, even a 1/2 pot bet will give our opponent incorrect odds to call based on pot odds alone. Of course, they could also think that they’ve got implied odds to hit, but maybe or maybe not, depending on the strength of your flush.

Anyway, our options:

1) Check/raise Townsend is no fool. If you check and he’s on a draw, he’s taking that free card. The only hands that he’s betting here are those hands that are worth protecting–hit own baby flush; overpair; two pair? (4-2?); or a set or maybe something like AT or KT with the A or K of diamonds. I just don’t see him betting here again here and letting himself be checkraised off of any hand that can draw for free to beat you.

2) check/call? Are you crazy? (No offense to those that took this path). There is virtually no value in this play. Sure, it looks weak and looks as though you’re possibly drawing, but this isn’t a .05/.10 game. I doubt that he’s going to consider you that big of a fish. He’s not going to put any more money into the pot without a hand that has you beat on the river. So, all you can do with a check/call is win the current pot, but you could lose much more if another diamond hits the board. I think this is the worst option.

3) Bet small (1/2 pot to 2/3 pot). This is my vote for a couple reasons. First, I think this is the most confusing action you can take. Your opponent has to guess whether or not the small bet means that you’ve already got a flush or that you are throwing out a blocking bet looking for a cheap river. It prices him out on a draw and yet opens the door for him to make an expensive steal attempt. It forces him into really one of two options–fold or raise. If he folds, you probably weren’t going to get much more anyway, but if he raises, you could then shove and then make him make a decision for the rest of his cash.

4) Bet pot. I really am not sure I see the value here as you will only be called by hands that have you beat. There are only a couple hands that could even consider making a call or a raise here that you’re ahead of such as a set or two pair; possibly an overpair, but doubtful. And, the chances of Townsend having one of those hands is very thin.

5) Overbet pot. I’m not a fan of this choice. Are you trying to sell the fact that you’re on a missed draw? Maybe this would work on the river, but probably not here. Again, I don’t see any value in this. He’s folding any hand that you beat and he’s calling or raising with any hand that beats you.

I do want to point out that the only hand that I can see Townsend giving a ton of action here, other than a higher flush, is JJ with the J of diamonds. (I don’t think we can concern ourselves with that hand though).

So, once again, I’m going to disagree here with the staff and the majority of voters. I would like to hear others’ comments though. Obviously, there are a handful of ways of playing this, but I think the small bet accomplishes both of our goals–to reduce odds to outdraw you and to build the pot.

The fact that Townsend flopped a higher flush really shouldn’t matter. At least we had two outs…

[Reply]

I voted bet pot just because I interpreted “bet small” as 1/3 pot or less. Optimally I would have gone 1/2 – 2/3 pot.

Check-raise against some other hand than another flush probably takes the pot down now, which not a bad outcome.

Check-call against a good player I think is too obvious that you’re slow playing a monster and probably gets no action on the river and so has an even smaller positive EV. I would have led both the flop and turn trying to represent c-betting.

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