Daily Hand Quiz

If I’ve been playing “goofy” and making “silly calls”, why stop now? Call.

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Agreed, at this spot one needs courage and risk a big raise. A call bring more risk that a raise (and a 3rd raise might even bring a free card at the river).

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I’m a little surprised by the responses so far and the voting.

I’m not the gambling type, so to me this is a clear fold.

If you flopped this hand heads up or possibly 3-way, I think it’s a great flop and one that I’d be willing to get my chips in with. After all, at least against a single opponent, there’s no way that you are ever really far behind with this hand. If they’ve got a higher flush draw, you are already ahead. And, if they’ve got a set, an overpair, two pair, etc, they can’t have the flush draw.

However, here you did not get to this point with just one or two opponent; you brought the whole table. Against one or two opponents, your hand has a ton of value because it really can’t be far behind. But, with three or more opponents, you could already be drawing dead. If one villain has 44 and another has A7cc you’re going to need running j’s and 9′s to fill up.

And, let’s look at the action so far. We’re in late position facing a bet (albeit a small blocking bet), two calls, and another raise (albeit it a small raise as well considering the action).

I have to admit that despite facing two raises, it is true that there is a lot of weakness shown in the hand. And, a raise here would put your opponents to the test here. There’s a big difference between putting in $8 or $20 and putting in your stack. So, there’s no question that an aggressive move at the pot here will take the pot some of the time.

This is definitely a nice little pot if we can pick it up right here. But, if both of the raisers decide to shove here, you’re going to be in very bad shape and you’ve pot committed yourself to the hand.

For me though, I’ve only committed $8 to the hand, and I really don’t like the idea of losing my entire stack on what is pretty much a semibluff with a marginal holding.

If our utg villain has KK, it’s an instashove and he may also shove with AK, especially with the Ac. If any of the other villains are holding AcXc, they are getting incredibly good odds to make a shove here as well. And, if anyone else is possibly holding 44, again a shove. And, we’ve now committed ourselves to making a call.

Again, I think the main factor making this a fold is the fact that you saw the flop with 5 other players. Yeah, it’s possible that none of them want to put their stack in there with a draw or a single pair, but I just don’t think we’re in as great of a spot as the staff seems to think.

A couple of other thoughts. Staff mentions at least 11 outs, but with the action on the hand, there’s no question that at least one other person has one or more clubs. And, I really don’t know if we can count a 9 as an out. Trips lose to a full house.

I don’t think we can simply discount all of the hands and all of the action so far.

Plus, the fact that we’ve got a loose image means that we may get looked up by UTG with AA or AK, a K high flush draw, and definitely a set of 4′s.

If the plan works and everyone folds, we pick up a quick $70. Otherwise, we’re risking our entire stack praying that we’ve got live outs.

And, for whatever it’s worth, I think it is a huge error for anyone to flat call your raise there. They pretty much have to push or fold; and you’re now pot committed.

Anyway, good question. If the table is this loose and this crazy, there’s no quesiton that I can find a better place to put my stack in than this.

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Oh, and one more comment; although the favorite choice so far is to flat call, I think that is the worst choice possible.

Regardless of the card that hits the turn (other than a 9), you are going to have a very marginal holding. Even if the club hits, are you going to put much more into the pot with the 3rd nuts? If anything other than a club hits, you really can’t like your pair of 9s.

Without a doubt, fold or raise here.

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I hate the call too, I prefer folding.

I am mostly afraid of the initial raiser. His 1/3 pot bet is obviously not just a c-bet.
Either it is a blocker bet, and he has the better draw, or it is supposed to look like one, and he has KK, AA or maybe AK. Sure you migth make him fold some of them with a big raise, but there is also the raiser too consider. He migth have a set.

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I would fold in this spot.

Good analysis Ally.

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Ally, if you’re not the gambling type you don’t belong at a poker table. Simple as that.

I don’t think folding is terrible though. Calling is certainly the worst/weakest option. You need to either get out or make a big move.

I like a big raise here, for squeeze value on the players between you and the last raiser. A strong raise will really put us in command of this hand, given the action so far. I think a big raise takes down the pot immediately more often than you’d expect.

If not, I’m willing to stack off with this hand here most of the time – I think the only scenario where I don’t is if after my raise, UTG the original preflop raiser shoves, and player E calls. I’m not making that third call.

But with a pair and the third-nuts flush draw, I don’t mind getting my chips in the middle against one opponent – especially if I’m the one shoving, for the extra fold vig.

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Jeremy, you are right that there is gambling involved in poker, obviously, but in the long run, each decision should have positive expectation.

If a person truly wants to gamble, they might as well go to the roulette wheel and pick a color.

In poker, we are given tons of information from which to make a decision in which we have some sort of positive expectation.

We could take the roulette route and just jam our chips in on every single coin flip situation. But, that is a very high variance style of poker and in the long run, it’s break even. We should use the information available to make informed decisions.

So, is it gambling, absolutely, but it’s also very selective. So, when I say I’m not the gambling type, that means that I like big edges. I like 80/20s and 70/30s when my money goes in. I don’t like to flip for my whole stack. And, I don’t like to get into situations where I can lose my entire stack when I don’t have all the proper information.

I’m by no means saying that a raise is not a good play here, but I’m going to say that it is a higher risk / lower reward type of play than set mining with your pocket fives against an UTG raiser.

You’re only in the hand for $8 and I think cutting your losses is the best play. Just my opinion. I’m willing to gamble when things look right, but to me, this just isn’t one of those times.

For whatever it’s worth, if we are up against a set here (KK or 44), we are only 30% to win the hand and it’s doubtful that they fold.

If we are up against a set and a higher flush draw, we’re at 3% to win the hand. So, obviously, we need to fold if the two players jam behind us. But, to find out we’re beat, we needed to spend $100.

If we’re called by a higher flush draw–let’s say AQcc, we’re just a slight favorite.

Based on our raise, I can’t imagine anyone out there flat calling. They can’t flat call with a set because it’s obvious that someone is on a draw; and they can’t flat call with a draw here not getting odds–they need to see the turn and the river.

And, I think we’ve determined that if one player pushes, we have to call and if two players push, we have to fold.

Well, against a set, we’re putting our stack in at 30% to win and if we’re against a higher draw, we’re a flip to win (and if we’re against both, we’re basically dead).

So, basically, by making a move on the pot here, we’re really making one huge bluff–more bluff than semibluff. I do think that on occassion this play will work and that everyone will fold, but does it work often enough to make up for the times when it doesn’t and we get our stack in as a 50/50 or worse?

Again, in my eyes, not a great spot to gamble since there are clearly better spots.

But, there is no question that aggressive gambling play will win you a lot of pots.

Just last night I played a cash game against a guy who was seeing 85% of flops and was overbetting every single hand on the flop and shoving the turn or the river some of the time. He had a great aggressive gambling style until everyone else at the table took turns taking him for every dollar in front of him.

Again, not trying to be argumentative since there’s no question that a raise here is a very strong aggressive play which will most likey get any higher pair to shut down and may force out any draws as well, but to me, it’s just too risky of a move to seem profitable in the long run.

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I voted “call” (can I change that? Not that it matters )

In Small Stakes Poker I remember something about “anytime you have a pair and a flush draw, you have a strong hand”. Now, that is small stakes and it refers to limit, but I think the chances of someone, even though there are 5 others in the hand, of having either the Ace or Q of clubs + another club are small enough to think that if one club hits, I’ve got the best hand. If a runner-runner hits, that’s a different matter.

The most likely to hold KK would be UTG, the most likely to hold 44 is player E, but against them the 9 clubs are good outs. Worst case scenario is we’re against BOTH KK and AcXc or QcXc in which case we’re chasing quad 9s, but I don’t see that as likely.

If I could change my vote, I’d raise and re-evaluate depending who calls/pushes.

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Prelude: One more piece of information I would like is the table captain’s image. Is he loose, aggressive, or is he hitting? Without knowing…

To me, it is simple: if you can call, you can raise. In other words, if you don’t have a hand you can raise with here, than you CAN’T JUST CALL, and you should fold.

Now, that being said, your table image will most likely determine the action you get in return. You currently have a loose image, so you probably are going to get a call no matter what, unless you raise all-in. You have to think that either of the two have a hand to call a minimum raise, and then your all-in on 4th street.

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Going to raise big here in hopes of at least 2-3 other players folding. Going to win this one
hugs, valerie

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Fold. Ally put al the reasons down already. Great Analysis btw.

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Call the bet, you are not going to make anyone fold there hand here, at least not the two main aggressors. If you raise anyone hold a flush draw will be getting excellent pot odds and will call anyway. You are up againt top pair top kicker and a set here. Hit your flush and take down the pot that is where I stand and I am sticking to it.

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