Weak ace in the big blind, final table of the PokerStars Sunday Million

Using the ICM (Independent Chip Model) you’ve only got +EV if you expect him to be playing any two cards more than 50% of the time. Your loose image and big stack probably means it’s much more likely he has a real hand. Clear Fold!!

Well, the button couldn’t dream of a best blind stealing spot: only folds in front of him, short stack and yet fold equity and he might assume that you will slow down after loosing a big pot.

Therfore, I think he could do this move with a wide range of hands : any ace, any pair, any two cards > 9, suited connectors (even one gap).

I don’t have any ICM software on my workstation, so I don’t know the exact EV against that range of hands. But instinctively, I would call that one, because even if the EV is slighlty negative, it is compensated by the money jump if you knock out your opponent.

This is a tough dicision, and I like both calling and folding.

If he had just half a million more fold
half a million less, call

here it is hard to decide. I think that I, in his spot, migth push with decent K-high and a lot of other hands inferior to A4. But the number of hand better than A4 is quited big, and those would push too, leaving you more behind than you would otherwise be ahead.

Fold is probably the best option.

You’ve got a monster stack, but that doesn’t mean that you should bleed chips left and right.

Based on the factors mentioned, I doubt the button is moving in here with atc. No need to gamble this early at the ft with the money increasing so much; no reason to gamble with the huge stack on the BB that could call down with A high…

The problem is here that you’re at best slighly ahead, and at worst way behind and it’s much more likely that you’re a big dog than a slight favorite.

Of course, you never know, you could suck out like that &@#$((*& that took me out of the Bodog $50k last night with their A4 resteal aganst my A8. So much for getting your money in ahead. So yeah, go ahead and call if you’re running hot…

If its me, I find it really hard to make a call in this spot because there seems to be very little upside. I really don’t like the idea of doubling up smaller stacks in spots like this. Even if I think we are in an approx toss up, (i.e. i think he is making this move with a strong suited king), get lucky to take his chips, what does this do for me? Not much. I go from a big stack to a slightly bigger stack. I’m still outchipping the other peeps by boatload of chips. I don’t think that the jump in the money that Sam mentions is reason enough to make the call for the simple fact that the players on my immediate left and right are getting to a point where they are going to have to start making moves and one or both will might be out soon. Also, as such a dominant chip leader, I’d make it clear that the other players are going to have to start setting up their own moves and take out other players to move up in the cash.

what up poker peeps! a ? from a newbie. Sorry, but what is ICM and is there a good place to read up on it.

Easy fold for me. The 2.2 million I risk losing far outweigh the three million I might win. Fold and I stay pretty much out of reach and don’t have 2 big losses in a row to worry about. Lose and the opposite happens, plus I give one more player an opportunity to come after me.

Very tough decision here. I voted call, but I think after reconsidering I might lean towards folding. In any case, I really don’t think either move is wrong. It’s one of those borderline, read-heavy cases that make poker poker.

It makes it easier to fold when you realize you’re way behind against any pp >3 AND any ace stronger than 4. You really only can beat Kx, and even then you’re not at that great an advantage. I don’t think he’s pushing with any two paint cards (KJ doesn’t push here, for example).

I’m starting to wonder if I should stop playing poker as I am the only one who voted call… I mean, the M of the button is only 3, he has to make a move and it’s just the perfect spot…

Let’s say you’re the button instead of the big blind. What would be your pushing range ?
In that spot, I would honestly push to steal the blinds with many marginal hands that can defend themselves even if I’m called : 78s, Q-10, K-8, J-9 etc.

Sam, you would seriously push here with 87/QT/K8/J9, etc against a guy that has been able to show that he can make a loose call?

Obviously, you want to play to win, but you push here in this situation, you’re easily risking the $9k payday you get from just moving up one spot. Certainly, there’s no guarantee that you move up here if you push and win, but you’re done if you push and are called and you lose.

I just don’t think it’s right here to push the button with ATC. I might push with KJ+/QJ/A9+ or 77+. But, then again, the $9k would mean a lot to me even though I might be passing on a bigger payday by playing more tight/passive here.

Excellent problem. I voted “call” but now I’m not so sure. I believe Harrington says when you have 10x someone’s stack, you put him all in (or call his all in) with any two cards. Here you are right on that line, you have just 10x. A4 off is not the hand you want in this situation but I do think Player F is going to make a move here with pretty much anything. Maybe we should analyze this problem again from his point of view. Let’s say he hold QJ suited. Wouldn’t he make this move? Let’s say Q8 suited. Let’s say 22. Against any of these hands, doesn’t the BB happily call? Are some of y’all being results-oriented here because you know F happened to have AK?

Well, with a M of 3 and being the first one to open the pot on the button, I would.

First, it is said that the final table just started, so if the bb was not at your table, there is no way he knows you make loose calls. The only sure infromation we have on the bb is that he called with AK, which is not exactly a bad hand.

And most of all, I do have fold equity, which allows to pick up the blinds & antes and would give me one more round to find my big hand. I think the general trend of the table is to be tight/passive because of the 9k jump. So, I would try to take advantage of that by being agressive in the right spots.

God, I missed this site

Smerdis,

Do you use PokerTracker or Poker Office to gather information on those tables?

I thought those programs only gather information on tables in which you are dealt cards?

So I presume you just observe the other tables and watch the big stacks

The guys pushes in 2.2 million on top of 300k.

To me that says A ?

Straight away I know my A 4 off suit is a long shot.

Easy fold. Next!

shaymalus,

PT can get other tables, site dependent, e.g. pokerstars it gets info only if you are active on that table, full tilt and others it is any open table up to about 16.

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