Daily Hand Quiz

Phil Ivey or not, I’m pushing back.

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First of all, let’s analyze what Phil could have in a situation like this one. We are playing heads up, so his raise does not necessarily mean anything in particular. His continuation bet also does not mean anything in particular, as this is the kind of bet Phil will do whether or not he connected with the flop. So, until now we have no real information regarding Ivey’s hand. I like Brian’s raise here, he shows strength by the raise, and shows he is not willing to be pushed around by Ivey’s aggressiveness.

The situation gets out of control when Phil reraises. Now Brian should be alarmed. Phil is saying I have a hand!

First, what is Phil putting us on?

I believe Phil is putting us on exactly the kind of hand we have. We could have called a raise with A-10, or even A-3, and flopped 2 pair and now want to protect it against any possible draws. Of course he could also be putting us on a flush, or even gutshot straight draw, and might be raising on a semi-bluff.

The real question is: What could Phil possibly be holding?

1) Two big suited clubs: That’s a definite possibility. He could have easily raised with K-Jc, K-Qc, A-Qc or even hands like A-9 of clubs. His continuation bet, as I said was a kind of bet he would make regardless of the flop, so we can’t say if he really connected. The question is, why would Phil reraise with a drawing hand. He knows we have at least a good Ace by now (at least A-J; and ofcourse we can have a better hand, our raise shows strength), so why juice up the pot, rather than just call and see the next card?

I firmly believe that if Phil had two large spades, and was drawing to a club draw, he at least has the A of clubs. He could by the way be holding A-K of clubs too. So, he figures he already could have the best hand, and if he doesn’t he’s got many outs. I really believe if Phil had this kind of hand, he probably will just call, rather than raise, because he doesn’t want to juice up the pot, and if the turn misses him, he could be in trouble.

2) A set. He could have made a set. He could possibly be holding 3-3 or 10-10 or even pocket Aces. In this case, he raised with his pocket pair pre-flop, which in heads up you’d do with almost any pocket pair, and then did a CB and then reraised to protect his hand if you were drawing, or get more money into the pot if you had a hand like A-10 or A-3.

I believe Phil having a set is very possible, and therefore Brian has to be way to cautious, you don’t want to be drawing dead against Phil!

3) A strong ace: Phil could hold a hand like A-K or A-Q, and wrongly believes that he has the best hand and is trying to protect it. This would be a misread by Phil. Our raise I believe indicates strength, and if we were drawing, we will bet a bigger amount probably. So, if Phil has a hand like A-K, and believes he’s got the best hand, he’s in for a world of trouble.

The three types of hands that I discussed are the only types of hands that he could have. Ofcourse, he can also be on a bluff, but I really very much doubt that.

From all possible hands he could have, I’m praying he has A-K. It could be the hand that could get him into most trouble! If he had a draw he’ll have many outs, so I really wish he has A-K.

Moving on, what’s our right action facing the reraise?

Obviously it’s either call, or raise, or even move in.

Moving all-in is the worst possible move. Phil will only call with hands that can crush us (a set). In face of an all-in reraise, he will fold hands like A-K, which I really want him to have, in order to get the most money out of it. He will not be calling with a draw, so moving in could protect our hand, but I still believe moving in is the wrong move.

I don’t want to raise here too. Most people believe reraising is the best move here. I disagree. If Brian reraises here, Phil will know for sure that Brian has a big hand, and not a drawing hand. He will put us on exactly the hand we have. I don’t want Phil to get that kind of information regarding my hand. I want him, if he has A-K, to believe I have a weaker Ace, or a draw, that way I will get paid off on later streets. If he has a set, he’ll move in, and we will be committed to making the call, with what could be a drawing dead hand. If he has a drawing hand, and does not catch the club on the turn, we won’t get paid off any more. So, as you can clearly see, Phil will have an easy decision, knowing what we have. I don’t want to give Phil an easy decision, I want him to have a misread on me, and I want to get paid off.

Therefore, the right move is to just call. This way, Phil could interpret this call in many different ways.

We could have a draw, and if a card that’s not a club comes on the turn, he will push with hands like A-K, and we will bust him. If he has a set, he’ll not get the chance to move in on us, and if he has a draw, and doesn’t make it, he might try bluffing, but I really doubt he will.

I want him to believe I either have a hand like A-J or a draw. That way, I could get paid off the most, will ensuring he doesn’t push all-in now, were I could be drawing dead.

Moving on, I’d like to add some comments on how we should play the turn.

A dream card will be an Ace. If he has A-K, it’s surely going to be all-in at some point. If he has a set (not Aces), he’ll have a fullhouse, and will get all his money in the pot, while we have the nuts. The only problem will be is that if he had a draw, and the Ace could scare him away.

If a blank comes on the turn, I would raise, and will raise strong, hoping he has A-K. If he raises, when a blank comes, I’ll just call again.

If a club comes, it’s trouble time. I will probably check if Phil checks, but if he bets, I will reluctantly fold. If a club comes and Phil bets, I am almost sure I’m beat! He could either have a set, or made his flush.

I will also be very carefull if a K or even a Q come on the turn.

So, in conclusion, I believe the right move is to just call here. My read on Phil is that he has A-K, and I want to get paid off! Yet, I still have to play the hand very cautiously, because he could make (or even have now) that could beat me!

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Heeey, I just read what really happened. Glad I made the absolutely right analysis

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You have to re-raise here. There are too many cards that can come on the turn that can kill the action…

Phil’s range here heads up is pretty huge. He could have:

* Any ace and he’s repopping to see where he stands. Even if you call, you’re most likely not going to get much more of his money in the pot.

* A big ace; you too could have a big ace, but not as big. I don’t think that he’ll slow down and you’ll probably end up with all of his money.

* A set of 3′s. Not much you can do here; you’re going broke, but you still have four outs.

* A flush draw and maybe an inside straight draw? This isn’t a monster draw and since he doesn’t know where he stands (you could after all have hit a set of 3′s or T’s, but you would probably have re-raised with your pair preflop).

* A3–two pair is a very strong hand heads up and you’re probably busting Phil.

* A suited A of clubs. With top pair and a flush draw, you’ve got to like your chances here.

* Any pair JJ-KK; he could three bet here to get you off 2nd pair.

If you call, and a blank hits the turn, you’re still only getting paid by a big ace and by A3 and you’re getting busted by 33.

If you call, and a J, Q, K, or a club hits the board, you are now going to be concerned that your hand is no good. I’m guessing you’d still have to go with your two pair (unless the flush hits), but you may fold the best hand there.

If you raise, you’re probably getting paid by a big ace, A3, and you’ll have to avoid 9 clubs from hitting to beat the suited Ac.

If you raise, you’re going to be looking at four outs to avoid being stacked if he has a set.

If you raise, you can probably force out any other draws.

If you raise, he folds any of the hands that weren’t going to pay you anyway–a weaker ace; any other high pair; etc.

So, I disagree with staff and with Cherry here. (Not sure why Cherry feels he made the absolutely right analysis).

You just can’t let Ivey draw here (if he’s got KQ/KJ of clubs); you can’t let any scare card which could shut down Phil (Q/J/T/club); you can’t just call…

If you raise, you force out some of Ivey’s weaker range, but he’s not paying you off anyway with those cards.

The best that you can hope for with a call is if the case ace hits the board, or if a non-club lower than nine hits the board which pairs Phil. So, you’re looking at maybe 3-4 cards that can come which will get you paid where you weren’t going to get paid to start with. But, there are 15+ cards that could beat you or kill the action. Raise is the best play here.

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This is a reply to Ally..
First of all thanks for your analysis which I believe is excellent, but still I have to disagree with your comments.

I believe that no one can put Ivey on a specific hand, but there are a variety of hands that Ivey can have. I believe we both agree that the hands Phil could have here are a flush draw, A-K (or A-Q), and a set. If Ivey has a set, we’re beat. If he has A-K we have him crushed, and if he has a draw we need to protect our hand – up until here I believe we both agree on everything.

We disagree though on the action we have to take. You believed reraising here is a must to protect our hand. I said that calling is the best move.

Let me explain why raising is not the best move. First of all, this is a huge pot, and in no-limit hold’em, you have to main objectives “maximize profits when you have the best of it, minimize losses when you don’t.” I believe you will agree with this statement. By raising to protect our top 2 pair, I believe that we will minimize our profits and maximize our losses!!!

Basically, if Brian wants to reraise now, to keep Phil off a flush draw, he has to move-in. There is no amount Brian can reraise that will give Ivey wrong odds to call on a draw while still not fully comitting sbrugby to the pot, so the better option will be to move-in.. right?

Well say Brian did decide to push all-in, do you think Phil Ivey will call with any hand we have beat? I think not! Unless Ivey has A-3, Ivey is not calling with a hand we have beat. He will not call with A-K or A-Q. I believe Phil is a great enough poker player to know by now that he is beat if he had A-K. So, what will he call us with, a set! So, by raising (moving-in), we can’t win any more money, we can just lose all we have! Sure we will have outs, but I’m not willing to take a situation where I am less than a 5-1 dog to hit an out!

So, if we see a turn, there are 18 cards we really don’t want to see (9 spades + 3 kings + 3 queens + 3 jacks). Which means that there are 34 cards which are not really scare cards, i other words, there is only a 34% chance that a scare card will fall on the turn. I believe Phil will bet if any of these cards fell on the turn, regardless of what he has. In this case, we can be pretty sure we’re beat, lay down the hand, and lose the absolute minimum (note that a great player like Brian, whom many consider the best online player in the world, is capable of laying down top 2 pair).

There is also a 66% probability that a blank will fall on the turn, which is much more than the probability of a scare card falling. In this case, we can play aggressively on the turn, while being less worried about his flush draw.

The only scare is that Ivey has made a set and will force us to move in on the turn when a blank falls. I believe then there is nothing we can possibly do, and will have to pay him off, but it is much better to wait and see the turn, rather than move in right now and get busted either way.

I believe if Phil has a set, he will bust Brian. If he has an A-K, Brian could bust him, given that he does not push now! So, he has to take his chances, let a turn card fall off, and hope to break Ivey on this hand

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Either way, I think this is a pretty fine line to call or raise. I agree with some of Cherry’s comments, but I still think there are risks with just calling…

If you raise…

Phil will put your range on:
* A set of 3′s (you probably would have re-raised pf)
* A set of T’s (you probably would have reraised pf)
* A3
* AT
* AK/AQ/AJ
* A suited Ac

Phil has AhKh and based on your range, it would be a tough call. (One thing left out on the hand description is the fact that you actually check/raised the flop; Phil did not just lead out. This means that you would have check/raised and four bet which should scream incredible strength to Phil). I agree that he may fold here with AK.

If you call, there are only two hands you can call with; a drawing hand or a trapping hand. You already check/raised and Phil puts out a whopping $21k. You can’t really call that amount with anything other than a strong draw or a trapping hand. You can’t call that with AQ/AJ/A9. So, you either have Phil beat, or you’re on a draw.

This play by Townsend forces Ivey to guess which one he’s got, and Ivey guesses wrong. So, at the end of the day, Townsend looks like a genious and Ivey has shipped his entire stack.

However, has Townsend discounted the possibility of Ivey holding a draw? Would he (Ivey) just call the check/raise to see a cheaper turn? If Townsend can absolutely be certain that Ivey does not have the draw from all of their playing together he has some read here, then I have to say that calling is the better option.

However, if Ivey has a draw, then I’m not sure how much I like Townsend’s play here. Although, to me his play is something that is very common in Omaha–where you know you have the best hand, but you also know your opponent is on the draw and will call with his combo draw getting good odds, but if you can see a blank turn, you can get it all in when your hand has a much better chance of holding. It’s possible that this is his plan, but then there’s no way he should check the turn. He should have led the turn. If Ivey checks behind on the turn, and a club hits the river, Townsend will look like a dufus when he shoves to represent the made flush and Ivey calls him with the nuts.

I think that in order to just call here, Townsend has to have an incredible read on Ivey’s holdings more so than we do. Townsend played the hand perfectly for Ivey’s range of a big ace and I think Townsend completely ignored the potential flush draw on the board.

I think in general playing 25 cent/ 50 cent without any specific read and in this exact same situation, you have to re-raise here. You’ll be called by AK/AQ/AJ and anyone on the draw. So, in without a read, I still say you need to raise here.

As it turns out, one of the possible scare cards does hit the turn, Ivey shoves, and Townsend calls anyway. If a K hits, Townsend is most likely going broke. If a club hits, is he going to lead out representing the made flush or try to check/raise (unless Ivey shoves)?

I have to say that this is a very difficult hand to sort through and I don’t think that there is any clearcut wrong or right decision. As it turns out, Ivey did not have the draw and Townsend got stacked, but the turn could have been a K and Townsend could have shipped his entire stack. Or, the turn could have been a club which would have either killed the action or got Townsend to laydown the best hand.

I’m still not sure which is better. Obviiously Townsend made the call and he’s a hell of a lot better player than me, but I’m hoping that he had a read or that he knows that if he’s face with this situation 100 times that calling will win him more money than putting in a 4th bet.

Anyway, like the site. Makes for a good break from work.

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Cherry you are utterly wrong…..
raising is definitely the correct play.

Do you actually believe Phil is folding AK here?
I dont think so……

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I do think he is letting AK go if I repop again

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