Whiffed flop against the chip leader, Poker Stars Sunday Million

You could have the best hand! The flop could have easily missed him. He could have called with a couple of weaker overcards, to get a rush going. He could have called with something like J-Q or K-J or even K-10 or J-10. In this case, unless his cards are suited spades, you have the best hand, and a bet will get him out, but it has to be a big enough bet.

He could also have flopped a huge hand. Calling with A-rag of spades. Or 7-6 suited and made top 2 pair. He also could have made a small set, or an open ended straight draw. In this case, a bet won’t get him off the hand.

If he had a draw, he will probably just call you down again, and try to make it on the turn. If he had something big he will reraise (for example top 2 pair).

It is also possible that he got a small piece of that flop, something like middle pair, with A-6 or something. In this case, he might lay it down, or just call you.

These are all possible hands he could have. I really doubt he has the nut straight with 4-5.

Now, analyzing the hands he could have, lets discuss possible actions on the flop.

Checking is definitely out of the question. If you check, you give the hand up.

In this position it is very important thatfor a very important reason. By checking you are clearly saying I did not connect with that flop, and I am not willing to play a hand with you. You can’t have a hand and check it now. So a check here shows weakness, and he would not ever bother think you are slowplaying a huge hand. If you had an over pair, you will bet, worried by all the draws on boarg. The same goes for a set. The only thing you could have raised with preflop, and now check is something like A-K or A-Q, and you did not connect, and give it up. Being a tight player, you clearly have a pocket pair, or a huge ace, since you raised preflop. You want to represent the pocket pair here.

The most important reason to not check here, I believe is because you want to stand up to the chipleader and tell him: “I’m not scared of you and your stack”. If you give up easily, and he is on your left, you will not be able to maneuvor all tournament long. Everytime you’re in a pot, you’ll see him call after you, knowing that he could take it away from you later. You don’t want to be the weak guy on the table that is intimidated by the chipleader, you simply want to show him that you could hurt him.

Another thing, just like the chipleader is the last one you want to be in a pot with, you are the last one he wants to be in a pot with. You have the 2nd biggest chipstack on the table, and you are the one that could hurt him the most.

By checking, he will bet and take down the pot, and you will create a weak image of yourself, and you will be his target.

Therefore, you must bet out.

If he calls, you’re probably done with this hand, unless the turn helps you greatly. I will still be cautious, if the turn brings and A or a Q. But if you really think he was on a draw and the turn did not help him, you could take it away on the turn. Your playing style seems to be tight and conservative, so I don’t think you are willing to bluff at it on the turn, but I certainly would if a blank falls.

If he reraises you, then you use up all the time possible then muck it, making it look that you considered calling!

As I explained, checking is definitely out of the question, and making a continuation bet is a must in this situation. I will make a continuation bet about 90% of the time here, so most often, other times, I might check it just to mix it up. But in this particular scenario, I will bet!

The next question is just how much to bet?

You want to look strong, and you want to represent a big pair, or even a set. You want to bet the size of the pot, telling him, I have the goods, and if you are drawing you have to pay for it. Most probably he will fold to a strong looking bet from a tight player.

So, if he calls or reraises, you will lose about half a million, not small change, but you will at least benifit by setting up the image of a fearless player, one who is willing to tangle with the chipleader. He will fear you, and next time you raise, be sure he will fold unless he has a huge hand. You want to get him off your back especially that he has position on you.

A bet here will probably win the hand for you, I really believe he has two over cards, something like J-Q, and he can’t call here. If you didn’t win the hand, at least you got out of it with a good strong fearless image, which can be valuable later on.

So, my answer to the question is ALWAYS MAKE A CONTINUATION BET and it should be A BIG BET, around the size of the pot!

I agree w/ everything P.C says above, except that I think you can lower the bet down to 2/3 - 3/4 pot and make the same statement while still cutting off odds to draw, and protect a few more chips in case he flopped a set.

My favorite line of Mr Cherry’s post is “you’re the last person he (the chipleader) wants to be in a pot with”. Very true. All those draws on the board can be just as scary to him as they are to you.

I like to bleed chips in this situation, so I will make a strong CB at about the pot. Anything else, other than an all-in check raise is very weak. It’s very likely you have the best hand. Who calls on the button with blinds that big anyway? He should definitely have raised or folded there pre-flop. I’m guessing he has a small pp, two face cards, or some sort of suited connectors. If he’s got any pair here, he’ll probably raise, but you can easily get away and still have a manageable stack.