Considering a bluff on the flop, 42 left in the Sunday Million

Game type: No Limit tournament, PokerStars Sunday Million
Your image: You’ve showed down good hands to win your stack
Stage of tourney: 42/7109 players remain
Avg stack: About 1.7 million
Misc notes: The next money increase is about $700 more at 28th.
Your hand: 8♠7♠

This hand is based on actual game play from the Stars Sunday Million on 4/16/07.

The Setup: You’ve made a nice run deep into the Sunday Million, and are already guaranteed $2700. The next money jump is at 28th, rising to just about $3400. You’ve been playing tight poker when the following hand comes up.

You make a bit of a loose call preflop with a suited connector when UTG+1 raises to 3x the big blind. The rest of the table folds, and the flop misses you completely:

2♦J♥6♥

Your opponent leads out for about 3/4 of pot. Average stack is about 1.7 million, and there’s now nearly 700k in the middle.

How often do you bluff in this spot?

8 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

matt tag

what does my opponent put me on if I raise here? AA/KK should have reraised before the flop – small pairs (6s, 2s) prefer multiway pots, No made straights and flushes out there. JJ perhaps?

Anyway, I can’t think of many holdings that I hold that look scary enough on this board, so I say rarely.

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Louise

I said rarely, but in the circumstances as outlined the answer is never. He had a strong enough hand to lead out from early position with a standard raise, he makes a strong continuation bet. I’m guessing he’s not folding, so I am.

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Jeremy Fisher

You can find a better spot than this.

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Ally

I agree with rarely.

Yes, the flop is ragged and does not match up well with the holdings of an UTG raiser. However, it doesn’t match up well either with a LP PF flat call. From his perspective, it is possible that you could have a set, but that’s really all. So, from his perspective, you would really have a monster hand or you would have a hand that could not call an all-in shove. From his perspective, if you raise here, he could probably shove air and you’d have to fold any two cards, other than a monster set.

If you were shorter stacked, you could gamble with a shove here, but with your stacks, fold and find a better opportunity

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Silfredo

I chose rarely due to similar reasong already posted, but I ask how many of you would consider a call here with the intention of bluffing the turn?

I actually think that this might be more successful than a bluff with this flop, espicially if the turn is a blank

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Patrick Cherry

First thing is what is my opponent’s style of play? (is he conservative or aggressive) What’s his mood? (Is he on tilt or is he playing good poker) All these matters come into play..

Since there is no information about him, I will assume I have not been playing him for too long and therefore I can’t use any information about him.. which in this case is very important…

So, his stack is about average.. the next jump in prize money is far away, so he knows he should play some hands. I can easily see him raising with A-J preflop, then betting on the flop protect his top pair. If he has A-J, he won’t fold.

Another hand he might have is an overpair, or a set in which case he will also not fold to a bluff.

He could also hold something that did not connect with the flop, and is just making a continuation bet, and trying to steal the pot, in this case a reraise will definitely take it away from him.

Since we have no information on him, I will assume he has no information on us, and therefore I can’t be sure my tight image will come into play here.

Assessing my opportunity and risk here, I will never make a move, unless I have a certain read on my opponent, and I am sure he has nothing. If I have the slightest doubt that he may have something, I will fold it.

If he has any part of that flop, even a heart draw, I should expect to be faced with an all-in, when I reraise (or a call, which will commit him to the pot, so sooner or later he is moving in). I don’t want to lose my chips in this marginal situation, so I will almost never try to pull a bluff here, I still am not desperate for chips, so I’ll wait for a better situation.

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Rallenkov

Never, no real need to bluff in this situation. Risk Rewar is no good enough fo rmy taste either.

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Pirate21

Really depends on some sort of read on the opponent, but generally I think a bluff probably works about 10-20% of the time here… so, I’m certainly not attempting a bluff any more often than that without a very strong read.

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