Mediocre hand in the SB vs the BB, no limit tournament

Game type: No limit tournament
Your image: You have been draining chips after taking a nasty beat a few orbits ago
Stage of tourney: Past the middle, moving toward the bubble
Avg stack: About 7k
Misc notes:
Your hand: K♣2♠

The setup: You’re nursing a shrinking stack in a $75 buy in on Full Tilt. When you’re dealt K2 in the SB, it doesn’t do much to improve your mood- until, one by one, the table folds to you.

There’s a much shorter stack in the BB who has been quiet. What’s your play? As a follow-up, if you vote fold or call, what’s the minimum hand you would require for raising here?

8 COMMENTS (Jump to comment form)

Cristiano

I’d like to raise another issue here.
I believe that going all in is an excelent choice.
But since I decided going all in is a good play and I am willing to risk that many chips, why not a pot raise looking for a fold. Should he call then push no matter the flop. He might have missed and might fold then (if he called at all).
If he would fold for an allin I dont see why he would call a pot raise anyhow.

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drhoho

I vote all in. Any significant raise would commit the BB so much that he had to push instead of calling anyway, no reason for pot bet. Only real alternativ is folding.

I made a rough estimate of the chance K2 is behind.
Heads up you are behind only 30% of the time.
If you assume that any better hand and no inferior hand will call you, and weigth the better hands with their chance of appearing and your chance of beating them etc., your average win from raising 1298 in stead of folding would be 390 chips, based on an even rougher estimate.
This is still a good reason to set him all in.

Of course the chances of players having good hands are not independent, so a folded table seems to decrease the chance of the others holding Aces, hence increasing the risk that BB has one. I have only tried calculating the inference with 3 other players in for the chance of A 10 being beat, there was only 0.6% inferense, (took 15 hour computertime), but I think the inference migth be significant on a 10player table. This weakens my estimate even more.

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ktek

May as well move allin if you plan on raising because any cards that he is going is going to fold to a raise he is going to fold to an allin. And any cards he is going to call and allin with he would just as easily reraise you allin if you potbet. If you raise and he has cards which hes willing to play with(alot of hands..very few would fold) your going to end up allin anyway.

Its not a bad move to go allin..sure u may be up agaisnt an dominating hand ..but vs something even like A blank you have live cards. In this stage of the tourny I think you need to gamble to try and put urself closer to the average stack.

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Zot95

Push.

Sklansky-Chubukov numbers are often abused a bit by being used outside of its very specific context… but this is almost a perfect fit.

The number for K2 off is 20. Not to totally rehash Sklansky-Chubukov here, but this means that pushing in this situation has better EV than folding, so long as the small stack is 20 times the small blind or smaller. Here, the raise would be 9xSB, so it’s “safe” to push.

The only wrinkle here is that Sklansky-Chubukov applies to a cash game, and this is a tourney… but the large margin of error here would presumably provide a big enough overlay to negate any changes.

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Texas_Reign

I would raise 3x or 4x times the blind. If you think about it any person at this stage with a short stack like the BB willing to call a raise is willing to go all in with their hand. If he/she goes all in then that’s what you wanted to do anyways, but atleast you are showing the BB that you have strength in your hand and put him/her to a decision risking the least amount of chips.

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anglegrinder

I do not agree with the posts so far. I am not against trying to steal in this situation generally, but on these facts I think it is a mistake. This is a tournament. The aim (at least my aim) would be to get “in the money”. This play here seems to offer little reward for a large risk. If you raise all-in, the BB is getting (just under) 4 to 1. The BB is on a small stack and (should be) looking for an opportunity to double up. With any connected hand, or something like Q9, T8 his call is +EV (his hand at worst is likely to be a 70-30 or 65-35 underdog) and that does not take into account the fact he could have a monster, or just have your hand dominated (e.g. K5). If you lose, you are stuck with 2500 with the average stack at 7000 (and in a difficult situation). If I know the player, and know I can outplay him on the flop, I might call. Otherwise I will fold and wait for a better spot.

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Patrick Cherry

I will never, ever move-in here!! It’s the kind of play that would lose you the tournament.

The BB has less that 2 orbits left.. he will call with ANYTHING!! With K-2 offsuit I don’t want to play a hand. It is just too weak. I am only about a 6-5 favorite on any random hand. If he has an A, I am an underdog, and if he has any K, I am dominated!

He will call without even looking at his cards, he HAS to! And if I lose, which is very likely, about half my stack is gone, I am very short-stacked, and probably will be out very soon. I hate to gamble in these situations, risking the whole tournament with K-2.

In here, I will FOLD. I still have more than 10 BB in my stack, so I’m not THAT desperate. I will wait for a better hand to get my chips in, but not here.

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The rivered Pro

Got to agree with cherry here per-diem.

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