Daily Hand Quiz

Sounds like a clear all-in to me :
- Top 3 is already a very decent result, and at that point, I just look to win the tournament, so I would be in the maximum risk taking mode
- I have many outs : spades, ace (I would have definitely considered it as an out), two back door straight draws
- I have him covered and I get the chance to eliminate him.
- He will put me on a very strong hand with the check raise and he will need at least a little bit of something to put his tournament life on.

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Push it in. I necessarily wouln’t count the Ace as a full 3 outs, but with the flush draw and a couple of backdoor straights a push is probably best. Plus you probably have some pretty good fold equity given your image and the fact the button has been raising quite a bit so if you take the pot down with your check raise, you have the chip lead and good opportunity to win or at least take second which doubles your prize money.

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Pretty clear all-in here. Your image + three handed + the flush draw pretty much decide it, but if you need any further assurance the fact that he raises 80% of his buttons means he’s much less likely to hit this flop than most raisers.

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Totally disagree with all-in. I call here. If he’s bluffing he may very well check on the turn giving me either two chances to hit the flush for the price of my call, or I could even bet large after he checks, and turn the tables. If he bets on the turn, and I’ve drawn a spade, he’s mine. If I don’t hit a spade and he bets then I made a nice try and now I’m out still with lots of chips and plenty of time left.

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I agree with Mark on this one. This is NOT a clear all-in.

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Nothing wrong with going all-in here. Even if you knew your opponents exact cards, you’d _almost_ have good enough odds to go all-in. With these particular cards, you have a 38% to win a showdown. With odds of 38,000 to win 87,900, you’d need to win 43% to make this break-even, chips wise. And this is basically a worse-case scenario, as far as your opponent’s holdings go: he has a hand, and you’re dominated. There really isn’t anything else that he’d have to make your showdown odds any lower. If he’s got KQ instead, you’re in “coin flip” territory (46% to win).

Based on the opponent’s history, he might not even have a “reasonable” hand like KQ. You’d have to presume you have a lot of “fold equity” here. We know he likes to raise a lot pre-flop on the button, but does he continue afterwards? If so, and given that you hadn’t checked raised, you’re very likely to get a fold here. Bad luck this time, but a good decision all the same.

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I call here. I absolutely want all my money in, I just don’t think I could get him to put his in here to my move. I think you have the pot a little high, I think its a 26,900. I don’t that’s a factor here.

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I would call to trap. You have not made the hand so no reason to put more money out there than is needed to see the next card. You could eather hit your ace or your flush and be in good shape to take control of the hand. I dont like to raise on my flush draws when someone is already betting for me. What happens when you dont hit your draw and you have 3/4 of your stack in there from reraising threw out the hand?? Bluffing the rest of my money to see if I can but the pot? NO way, and what if some one calls you all in with one card to go? You call? Not me You kind of screwed yourself here so make the hand then push you chips in on the river if needed. At least you get to see it this way. Thats the smart play.

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For those of you who said call, would you have led out at this pot, or were you thinking check-call the whole way? I think check-call is a pretty bad overall plan here, you need to be aggressive at some point to suceed in tournaments like this.

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First, I think Mary is right, the pot in the picture is incorrect, it’s actually 20900 : 5000 (pf bet) + 5000 (pf call) + 1000 (sb) + 900 (antes) + 9000 (flop bet).
Anyway, the point is that the all-in check raise is a POSITIVE EV play. Let’s say you make these assumptions :
1/ There are 50% chances that he’s bluffing and making a continuation bet (I don’t think it’s unrealistic given the fact that he constantly raises the button). In that case, he folds
2/ If he’s not bluffing, the ace is an out and we put him on a pair of Q. In that case, if we’re called, we have 47% chances that we make the best hand.
So your EV is 50%*20900 (he folds) + 24%*49900 (he calls and we win) -27%*49900 (he calls and we lose) which gives us +8953. The breakeven is actually 13% chances of bluffing, which is very low considering your opponnent.

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I vote all in on this. Even though I find it very likely that the other player hit. I dont think he is a fish as someone suggested.
The problem is that I would obviously have bet this myself on the flop, not checked it. The only reason to check it, is if you want to checkraise it, so the all in is of course an obvious follow up, but I dont always like pushing with a draw.
If you just call here, and if you dont hit on turn you have nothing. And if you hit, it is bloody obvious to the other player. So even if he is not bluffing, you are not sure to get the implied odds needed. I hate calling.
Folding is of course pathetic, but also an option. Either fold or all in. And the latter is probably smartest.

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