Archive pick: Value betting the river, no limit hold em cash

This hand is from the archives and originally appeared on 8/21/07. View the original quiz and comments here

What we said then …

I think value betting decisions like this are critical in no limit hold em, and while I’m sure that a lot of people will disagree, I think you can seriously consider a check behind here.

Your opponent either holds a weaker made hand, a stronger made hand, or a draw.

A stronger made hand seems unlikely, as a set would probably make a move on the turn or lead out the river.

A weaker made hand is pretty possible - I can see a medium pair with an ace kicker leading out the flop and then calling your raise, given your image. Again, I feel like this type of hand would have come back on the turn or led the river. It’s also possible that a weaker Q may have called the flop, although the turn call would be a little brave.

A draw is pretty possible - the flop had several open ended + the flush draw. The flush draw missed, but the OE got there, and while a check isn’t a standard play OOP with the nuts on the river, it’s certainly not uncommon.

I don’t think you’re getting called by a lot of weaker hands, but if you open up the betting again, you might have a hard time laying down to a large CR. While it may seem weak, and may be pretty marginal, I think a check behind is the way to go most of the time here. If your opponent is a little tilty or passive, that might tip it to a bet of about 1/3-1/2 pot.

What actually happened: You checked behind and your opponent showed KQ.

I see the reason behind checking, but given my aggressive image I want to value bet this.

Something like 80 bucks.

have to value bet. 80 sounds good. Failing to value bet here costs you around 40 big blinds (if he calls and you win) - a huge mistake.

You would have to play 7-2 offsuit in early position 40 times in a row to equal the size of this “mistake”.

Factor in times that you might be beaten, or that he folds, and maybe it’s a net 15-20 times BB. Still a net positive, IMO (w/o doing the math).

I dont really hate checking, but I prefer to make a small value bet, hoping he has weaker two pair.
I go for a small bet of ~ 55$.

Given the villain’s image I would check. He is tricky and could be planning a ck raise with 66, although more likely would have raised on the flop with the flush draw. Could also have 89d which would have given him odds to call the turn.

because he has a pair of aces

I think weve got the best of it. Im value betting. I would check behind if there were more draw possibilities that hit, or a paired board, but I just feel its unlikely hes got top 2 beat here.

No way I simply check. Outside of KdJd and 9d8d, I eliminate other hands that have me beat. Set should raise at some point after turn. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ or a lucky flop for two pair are the other options in his rang. Pure flush or straight draws should fold after the turn. I like the lower value bet here in the 50-60 range. I also like a bet sized raise to see if my aggressive image induces a call. No matter what, I show these cards as the AQ limp will keep players from effective reads.

As a side note, if the guy is so tricky that I can’t get a good read, then I probably need to find another table.

If you check this you should give up poker. What actually happened is exactly what was expected and if he called the Turn he has to call the River (or he needs to give up poker).

Therefore I am betting about $100 and looking to get paid off.

im never checking this river…based on my image and the strength of my hand…im going to V-town baby…ill see you there